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REAL ESTATE
From the RealEstateJournal Archives

Home Resales Fell 2.6%
In July; Stockpile Grew

by Christopher Conkey
From The Wall Street Journal Online
August 25, 2005

Sales of existing homes retreated in July from June's record highs and the stockpile of unsold homes rose, a hint that the still-strong residential real-estate market may be starting to lose some of its vigor.

The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes dropped 2.6% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.16 million units, down from 7.35 million in June. The decline was the largest one-month drop in 18 months, but the July figure was still the third-highest on record and 4.7% above the July 2004 pace.

Condominium sales slid 5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 915,000 units, the first setback since February for a segment that has outpaced other housing types this year. Single-family home sales fell 2.3% to a rate of 6.24 million per year.

The retreat was particularly noticeable in the West, a high-priced area that has fueled the market's expansion in recent months. Sales in the region dropped 7.5% from June, spurred by a 13% decline in condo sales. Overall sales were down 3.3% in the Northeast, 1.8% in the Midwest and unchanged in the South.

Despite the fall in sales, the median price of homes rose to $218,000, a robust 14.1% higher than last year. The median price -- the figure at which half sold for more and half sold for less -- decreased 1% for condos to $219,300, but rose 0.5% for single-family homes to $217,900.

Economists have been searching for signs that the housing market is beginning to cool. Some saw the new data as another sign of the beginning of a broader slackening. "I think it signals a slowing," said Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. David Lereah, the Realtors association's chief economist, characterized it as a reasonable decline in light of recent highs and said low mortgage rates will continue to aid builders. "It's still a seller's market," he said.

The Realtors survey found an upturn in inventories of unsold houses, a phenomenon that could apply downward pressure on prices and new construction. Total housing inventory levels rose 2.6% in July to 2.75 million homes, the equivalent of a 4.6-month supply of unsold homes. While low by historic standards, it is the highest since November 2003. For condos, inventory shot up to a 5.3-month supply, a 29% jump from June and the highest rate since the survey has tracked the figure.

"All of the sudden, condo inventories are starting to build a little," Mr. Lereah said. "We may be seeing a little sign there that air is starting to come out of the condo balloon."

The Realtors survey is drawn from a large sample of closings on the sale of existing homes, and reflects purchase decisions made in the spring. The organization also has begun to report pending sales; that report is due Sept. 1. The government publishes a separate tally on the construction and sale of new houses.

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