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REAL ESTATE
From the RealEstateJournal Archives

Open-House Blog: What's Next
For the Real-Estate Market?

by Lauren Baier Kim
June 01, 2006

Here's a look at what's new in real-estate markets across the U.S. from around the Web. (Some links may require registration or subscriptions.)

A tale of three housing markets

The metropolitan real-estate market in the U.S. can be split up into three distinct categories, says The Advocate, in an article that reports upon the findings of Christopher Cagan, director of research and analytics for First American Real Estate Solutions. Using these classifications, Mr. Cagan offers predictions on how housing prices will react within the next decade. The next 10 years will offer significant investment opportunity in "linear" markets -- locales that typically experience steady, but modest gains, but rarely see price increases the size of ones seen during the housing boom, the article says. Linear markets include much of the American heartland, including Houston, San Antonio and Atlanta, The Advocate says. Colorado, Texas and Southwest energy-belt areas, all linear markets, may see significant price appreciation in the next few years, the article says. Cyclic markets, many of which are on the coasts, were those that were primarily affected by the housing boom -- locales like most of California, Florida and New York, Mr. Cagan says. These areas tend to cycle between periods of impressive price appreciation and those of market corrections, he says. In coming years, a trend might develop in which homeowners in these markets start cashing out and moving to more reasonably priced ones, he says. "Hybrid" markets, cities like Chicago, Seattle and Phoenix, are those that exhibit both cyclic and linear periods of growth, he says. In these areas, booms tend to be less substantial, but so are their periods of price corrections, he says.

New York commuters hit the road

Forced out of suburbs like Westchester and Nassau Counties in New York and Bergen County in New Jersey because of high housing prices, workers employed in Manhattan are buying homes farther and farther away from the city, The New York Times reports. Among areas seeing increased buyer interest are southern New Jersey, Philadelphia suburbs and areas north and west of Westchester, the paper says. For instance, commuters who once may have settled in Westchester County, the paper says, are now moving further out to Dutchess County in New York, the article says. The savings in housing costs are fairly considerable -- at the end of 2005, the median price for a single-family house in Westchester was $640,000, whereas it was only $242,500 in Dutchess. The New York Times says there's no statistical evidence that commuters are spreading into southern areas of New Jersey, but one local developer has built six new housing developments in Burlington County alone, the paper says.

Desert's housing market isn't so hot

Coachella Valley, home to California golf mecca Palm Springs, is becoming a buyer's market, says The Desert Sun. Houses are taking longer to sell, inventory is up, and 30.3% fewer homes were sold in April from a year before. The median sales price rose 10% from 2005 to $400,000 in April, but was equal to March's median price, the article says. In April 2005, the year-over-year median price appreciation was a much higher 16.5%. "As an investor, I'm not really happy about the situation right now," the paper quotes one residential property owner as saying. "There's too much supply and not enough demand." However, the Coachella Valley housing market, with its lower prices, is doing better than much of Southern California, The Desert Sun says. For instance, in April, San Diego's year-over-year appreciation was a mere 4.3%, according to the article.

Sluggish sales in Massachusetts

In Massachusetts, sales of single-family homes fell to the lowest April level since 1995, says an article published by The Boston Globe. Last month's sales of single-family homes were 16.5% lower than last year, the paper says. Buyers are finding that residential properties are taking longer to sell or are not selling, the article says. Some buyers are resorting to unique methods to attract buyers. For instance, one seller is offering buyers a year's worth of free gasoline with the purchase of his home, but so far, there are no takers. This property owner has had to cut his asking price by $45,000, The Boston Globe says. "People are getting quite a product for the money," the homeowner is quoted as saying. Home buyers are taking their time evaluating their choices, the paper says, and unlike last year, will no longer immediately jump on a residence they like.

Condos not for you, but for your car

While home sales across the U.S. are slowing, there is one residential segment that appears to be picking up -- urban dwellers are purchasing condominiums for their cars and motorcycles, says The Chicago Tribune. These individual units are much more than just a parking space and may come air-conditioned, will shield your vehicle from the elements, and may even include security, and concierge services for things like tune-ups, washing and waxing and having photos taken of your vehicle. One car-condo developer is opening projects in North Miami and Fort Lauderdale, and plans to expand to Las Vegas, New York, Orlando, Fla., and Scottsdale, Ariz. Units range from a 620-square-foot condo for $150,000 to an 1,800-square-foot condo for $400,000. Buyers consider the condos both as a piece of real estate and as an investment, the article says.

Join a reader discussion about the residential real-estate market.

Send links to articles about residential-real-estate markets to Lauren Kim at lauren.kim@wsj.com.

Email your comments to rjeditor@dowjones.com.


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