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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
From the RealEstateJournal Archives

Home Builder Ryland Cuts
Its 2006 Earnings Estimate

by Janet Morrissey
From The Wall Street Journal Online
July 25, 2006

Ryland Group Inc. reported net income fell 9% and orders plummeted 39% in the second quarter as the home builder, like others in the sector, struggles with a deteriorating housing market.

And in a sign that the builder doesn't expect the weak trends to end anytime soon, Ryland cut its earnings estimate for 2006 to a range of $7.75 to $8.25 a share, down from the revised estimate it gave in May for earnings of $8.50 to $9 a share.

Early Wednesday, the Calabasas, Calif., home builder reported revenue of $1.2 billion in the second quarter, up 3.4% from $1.1 billion a year ago. Net income totaled $94.8 million, or $2.03 a share, down from $104.3 million, or $2.10 a share, a year ago. The latest results were slightly better than Wall Street expected, exceeding Thomson First Call's estimate of $1.93 a share. They topped Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim's projection of earnings of $1.80 a share.

The company's gross profit margins from home sales contracted to 23.2% from 24.5% a year ago, which caused the earnings decline. The company attributed the weaker margins to increased discounts and incentives as well as to write-downs on inventory. That was partly offset by higher prices as the average price rose 8.5% to $295,000 on homes closed in the quarter.

Orders, a key metric for forecasting future revenue the company will receive when a home is delivered two or three quarters later, fell 39.4% -- a steeper decline than analysts had been forecasting. Wachovia analyst Carl Reichardt had expected orders to be down 35%.

Last week, D.R. Horton Inc., one of the nation's largest home builders, said it expects fiscal third-quarter profit to be lower compared with a year ago. While most home builders are suffering from the housing slowdown, D.R. Horton's troubles are significant because the builder has been able to weather previous downturns with ease.

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